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Comparison of WISDOM to WAR |
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I can't say that the
WISDOM calculation is any better than WAR. |
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I just thought it
would be interesting to tackle Win Shares from a different angle. |
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Whereas WAR uses
individual player stats to extrapolate up a wins value, WISDOM divides the
number of wins a team got amongst the players |
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While I was at it, I also injected some of my own
personal biases into the calculations |
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The point totals listed everywhere are WISDOM, for comparison,
I put WAR figures in parentheses |
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I based WISDOM point totals for starting pitchers based on
their wins and innings pitched - I think the statisticians hit on something
with their wins statistic back in the eighteen hundreds |
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I tried to give closers some love. Saves are an important
relief pitcher stat to me. It is only
recently that they've tried to glorify middle relievers. I'm not buying it. |
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WAR gives middle relievers a lot more love than I do - to me,
they're the guys who are not good enough to start or to close |
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I give catchers more love
than WAR does - these guys set the tone on the field, they need to be leaders
and it's no surprise that a high percentage of managers were catchers as
players. Every pitch goes thru them. |
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I give shortstops more
love than WAR does - a 1st baseman can be immobile, a 2nd baseman can have a
rag arm, a 3rd baseman doesn't have to field the ball cleanly - a shortstop
has to be good at everything. |
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WAR doesn't give centerfielders as much love as I do. A good
centerfielder can hide the weaknesses of the others with his range. Ask any
pitcher the value of a good centerfielder. |
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WAR gives DH's much more love than I do - these
guys are an anchor - you have to rate them lower than your worst fielder, or
they'd be in the field. A guy who can only DH kills a manager's lineup
flexibility. |
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WAR gives utility
infielders and reserve outfielders much more love than I do. These guys are
the scrubs. You lose flexibility if they can only platoon. Their at bats are
generally cherry picked rather than facing everybody. |
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I give speed way much more love than WAR does. |
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WAR counts bases and determines runs created from that which, in turn,
extrapolates to wins created by a player. |
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WAR also tries to extrapolate the difference in runs created when a fast
runner is on base versus the average. individual counting misses the point of
what speed does. |
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Unfortunately for WAR, the effect of speed doesn't only show up in bases
gained by a player. Speed affects the stats of subsequent players in the
lineup a lot more than counting bases. |
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For example, a pitcher hurries his delivery to the next batters in an
attempt to stop stolen bases. A pitcher's concentration is divided with a
fast runner on the bases. Fielders play out of |
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their normal positions and are frequently on the move when a fast runner
is on base. Fielders must speed up their fielding and their throws once the
ball is in play when there is a speedy |
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runner on the bases. Catchers call more fast balls and have their
attention also divided when a speedy runner is on base. All of this helps the
stats of the next batters in the lineup, not |
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the stats of the fast guy. WAR doesn't account for this phenomenon. |
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Points carves out space for crediting speedy base runners to give them
their due. |
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I give players credit or debit for lineup synergy, WAR can't. |
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Where you bat in a lineup affects your opportunites to produce. WAR
doesn't really address this altho' to do so would add even another layer of
complexity. No bueno. |
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A good hitter in the lineup affects the stats of the guys before him in a
positive way. If a big hitter is looming, pitchers will come into hitters and
be less aggressive with the strike zone |
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because they don't want to walk a guy if a big hitter is coming up next
in the lineup. Thus, the stats of the previous hitters go up just by the
presence of the big hitter. |
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Conversely, a weak hitter's presence in the lineup hurts those in front
of him. A pitcher can be much more aggressive in the strike zone with a
hitter knowing that the next guy up won't |
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hurt him even if he walks the current guy. I disregard the few hits that
pitchers get in this model because they are more than offset by the negative
impact a pitcher has on the rest of the |
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lineup. |
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Points uses Hadj to credit the good hitters and debit the bad hitters for
their lineup synergy |
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Actual win shares are much more intuitive than Wins Above
Replacement - whatever that means. How many wins did you generate vs. how
many wins did you generate above what? |
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Also, WISDOM win shares are whole numbers. WAR win shares are
two counterintuitive decimal places |
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