2020 -  After nine years of losing seasons, most well below .500, San Diego

turns it around in the Covid shortened '20 season seeing their record move

to a posh 37-23 mark (which extrapolates to 100-62 in a full schedule).

The difference was that San Diego started to spend. In 2019, they surprised

everybody signing high priced star 3B Manny Machado away from the Dodgers.

In 2019, superstar twenty year old SS Fernando Tatis, who had been stolen

from the White Sox three years earlier, came up as a rookie and went

22-53-.317 with 16 stolen bases. In 2020, the Padres added pitchers Mike

Clevinger, 29, from Cleveland and Zach Davies. 27, from Milwaukee.

□ The owner of the Padres is a consortium led by Ronald Fowler and Peter Seidler

who bought the club in '12. The consortium looked like the typical shallow

pockets ownership San Diego has traditionally had until '19 when they

started spending. Unclear what prompted ownership to reverse course and

let go of the purse strings, but it was great news for San Diego fans.

□  AJ Preller was brought on as GM in '14. After floundering for a number of years,

he has been at the forefront turnaround in '20. It has helped

him, big time, that the Padres purse strings were loosened considerably

over the last couple of years.

□  Jayce Tingler was hired as manager in '20. He's a new age type of

manage and young at 38 years old. He speaks fluent Spanish.

He has a lot of experience managing Latin players in the Dominican Winter

and Summer leagues. Unfortunately for Jayce, he lasted only two seasons

as he was the one who had to fall on his sword after the 79-83 '21 season.

Veteran Bob Melvin, a traditional sort, took Tingler's place.

2021 - The bumpy ride begins. Despite spending big on their pitching staff,

bringing in Yu Darvish, 34, from Texas, Blake Snell, 27, from Tampa,

Joe Musgrove, 28, from the Pirates and closer Mark Melancon, 36, from

the Braves, the staff actually goes from giving up 4 runs per game in '20

to 4.5 runs per game in '21 and the team falls under .500. This was a huge

surprise and it cost manager Jayce Tingler his head.

2022 - The Padres double down on their spending. They add LHP Sean

Manaea, 30, from the A's before the start of the season and then score a couple

of blockbusters landing twenty three year old super superstar Juan Soto, 23, from

Washington and stud closer Josh Hader, 28, from Milwaukee at the trade

deadline. San Diego yo-yo's up to an 89-73 mark and the arrow is

definitely pointing up. The pitching staff knocks the half a run a game it added

in '21 back down to four runs per game given up.

2023 - The Padres make another splash in the off season signing star SS

Xander Bogaerts, 30, and RHP Michael Wacha, 31, both from the Red Sox

and they add 3B Matt Carpenter, 37, from the Cards. They have an all star

semi circular lineup and a high priced talented pitching rotation and a stud closer.

Expectations are very high for the Padres to contend with perennial hundred

game winners, the Dodgers, for supremacy in the NL West.

2023 - The Padres lay an egg going 82-80. They were expected, with the

roster they had, to win around a hundred. Very disappointing for San Diego.

The Padres run totals indicated a 92-70 record while not what was expected

would have made their season palatable as they would at least have made

the playoffs. Usually when a team underachieves this badly, it is because

their closer was a disaster, blowing one close game after another. That wasn't

the case here. Closer Josh Hader was brilliant with 33 saves on a 1.28 ERA.

The pitching staff overall ranked second in the National League and gave up

a hundred runs under the league average. The starters went 54-33. The culprit

was the bullpen depth beyond the excellent starters and closer. They had a

combined 28-47 record and blew one game after the other in the middle innings.

The Padres also supposedly had a circular all star lineup, but managed to score

only four runs over the league norm. Juan Soto pulled his weight with a .930 OPS.

But nobody else was over .800. Stars 3B Machado, SS Bogaerts, OF Tatis and

C Sanchez all had decent years, but not star quality seaons.

2024 - After making it to the ALCS in '22 and bringing in a bunch of high

priced free agents for '23, expectations were high, championship high.

Instead the Padres laid an egg and have abandoned the high priced

star route. Losing revenue on their TV contract and their high spending

owner Peter Seidler made the decision to pull back on spending a

foregone conclusion. San Diego traded away their best hitter, young

slugger Juan Soto to the Yankees for a couple of quality pitching prospects.

They let go in free agency stud closer Josh Hader (33 saves). Starter

Michael Wacha (14-4), starter Blake Snell (14-9) and Seth Lugo (8-7).

The two youngsters from the Yankees, Michael King (4-8) and Randy

Vasquez (2-3) plus veteran Dylan Cease (7-9), acquired from the White Sox,

have some pretty big shoes to fill. Robert Suarez who had a 4.33 ERA

last year will attempt to replace Josh Hader. Good luck with that.

On offense, the Padres will struggle to retain last year's mediocrity now

that Soto is gone. They have three studs in 3B Machado, OF Tatis and

SS Bogaerts, who should all do better than last year. However, after them,

the offensive talent drops off a cliff.

San Diego has a group of quality minor league prospects, but they are

not major league ready: C Ethan Salas; SS Jackson Merrill; OF Samuel

Zavala; P Dylan Lesko and P Robby Snelling

The outlook is non-contention for San Diego.

2025 - The Padres looked like they were trending downward in '24, but

instead gained thirteen games in the standings in '24 and made it to the

playoffs losing to the champion Dodgers.

Funny thing, altho' the Padres lost a bunch of significant players, they ended

up with almost identical run totals to 2023. They overachieved on their run

differentials slightly in '24 after horrifically underachieving on them in 2023.

2025 Pitching:

This would have been a pretty decent rotation for '25 if Joe Musgrove

hadn't gotten hurt. Instead, it's just sort of OK.

Newcomers Dylan Cease, R-29, and Michael King, R-30, slotted in very

nicely at the top of the Padres rotation going a combined 27-20 3.25.

Matt Waldron, 28, was promoted from within and somewhat surprisingly

held his own going 7-11 4.91 and Randy Vazquez, 26, the other guy obtained

from the Yankees in the Juan Soto trade also managed to stay afloat at

4-7 4.87. Ancient Yu Darvish, 38, was still effective at 7-3 3.31. A big blow

to the Padres was ace Joe Musgrove, 32, 6-5 3.38 going down and

undergoing Tommy John surgery. He will be unavailable in 2025.

The Padres signed Nick Pivetta, 32, FA from Boston, to a four year $55 million

deal to fill Musgrove's spot in the rotation. He was 6-12 4.14 last year.

2025 HItting:

When healthy and playing up to their potential the Padres have something

of a murderers row in the middle of their lineup.

3B Manny Machado, 32, 29 105 .275 is a stud. OF Fernando Tatis, 26, has

fallen off a cliff since coming back from his PED extension at 21 49 .276.

The Padres need him to return to his former studliness.

Jackson Merrill, 22, is the next stud at 24 90 .292, numbers that would

normally have gotten him Rookie of the Year. As it is, you have to feel there

will definitely be awards in his future. Luis Arraez, 28, is a flat out hitter.

He hit .318 last year and has three batting titles under his belt.

SS Xander Bogaerts, 32, battled with shoulder problems last year and

had a sub par 11 44 .264 stat line. He is much better than that.

1B Jake Cronenworth, 31, 17 81 .231 is a decent bat that helps solidify

the lineup a bit. Losing OF Jurickson Profar to free agency hurts.