2020 -  Tampa Bay continued to get better in '20 finishing 40-20 and

making it to the World Series. They had won 90 and 96 games the

previous two seasons. As usual, it was the pitching that propelled the Rays.

Despite their previous success, the Rays had a nine year streak coming

into '20 where they had a below league average offense. In '20, the offense

scored eleven more runs than the league average to break the streak.

Meanwhile, Tampa's pitching was significantly better than the league

average in '20. The Rays performed four games better than their runs

totals would indicate because their bullpen was outstanding so that

Tampa Bay was winning the close ones.

□   Stuart Sternberg has led a consortium that bought the Rays in '04.

Considering the tight income stream that Tampa has had to work with

in his seventeen years of ownership, Sternberg's success with Tampa

has been nothing short of remarkable. They've finished over .500 nine

times with six post season appearances and two World Series appearances.

Considering that the first four years of Sternberg's tenure were below

.500 as the franchise was gearning up, that's nine of the last thirteen

winning seasons. Add in that the Rays have been in the toughest

division in baseball with the big spending Red Sox and Yankees

and Sternberg's achievements go to another level of remarkable.

□   Erik Neander has been GM since 2016 and has obviously done a

fantastic job. One of owner Sternberg's biggest strengths has been

putting an outstanding management team together. Andrew Friedman

was Sternberg's first GM and after being wildly successful in Tampa,

Friedman moved on to LA where he has been wildly successful with

the Dodgers. Neander was kicked upstairs to President in '22 with

Peter Bendix promoted into the GM slot.

□   Kevin Cash has been Tampa's manager since 2015. He, also obviously,

has done a great job. He took over for Joe Maddon, one of the best,

who took over for the legendary Lou Piniella. These have been the three

field managers during Sternberg's tenure, you couldn't do better.

2021 - The Rays win the Divison with a 100-62 mark, but disappoint in the

post season dropping the ALDS to Boston

2022 - Generally 86 win season aren't considered down years for small

market teams, but it is for Tampa. Nonetheless, the Rays make it to the

post season as a wild card but lose in the WC round to Cleveland.

2023 - Tampa enters the season with a competitive team filled with good

hitters and solid pitchers. The lineup is circular with 1B Yandy Diaz,

2B Brandon Lowe, SS Wander Franco, 3B Alex Paredes,

OF Randy Arozarena, OF Jose Siri OF Harold Ramirez and OF Josh Lowe

all good sticks.

On the mound Shane McClanahan, Tyler Glasnow, Taj Bradley Drew

Rasmussen and Zach Elfin are a solid rotation. The bullpen could be better.

2023 - Tampa has a big year winning 99, but finishing second to the Orioles.

They lose the Wild Card to eventual World Series Champs Texas.

They got off to a 57-28 start but cooled off to a 42-35 finish. Hitting is Tampa's

strong point and losing Wander Franco to domestic issues hurt the offense greatly.

2023 - Tampa trades 1B prospect Kyle Manzardo, 22, to Cleveland for righthander

Aaron Civale, 28, at the trade deadline.

2024 - In a blockbuster trade with the Dodgers, a classic poor feeding the rich

baseball trade, the Rays trade ace Tyler Glasnow, 29, and OF Manuel Margot

to LA in exchange for prospects righty Ryan Pepiot, 26, and OF Johnny DeLuca.

2024 - The Rays have been elite from 2018-2023. Their severe downturn during

the latter half of '23 and the fact that there is a real possibility that their best

player, Wander Franco, will never play for them again are very concerning.

Offense:

Tampa's robust offense scored 112 more runs than the league average and that was

without Franco for half a year. They've had a potent lineup with six players topping

twenty home runs and four more in double figures (Franco 17 and Luke Raley 19).

To replace Franco, they traded Raley to Seattle for SS Jose Caballera.

TB is one of only a couple teams where Raley won't be missed.

The team has a near circular lineup with power all up and down the lineup

The one thing they are missing, with Franco gone, is a superstar to anchor

the lineup

□ C Rene Pinto, 27, '13 IFA, 6 16 .252

□ 1B Yandy Diaz, 32, '19 trade from Cleveland, 22 78 .330

□ 2B Brandon Lowe, 29, '15 3rd round pick, 21 68 .231

□   SS Jose Cabballero, 27,  '24 Trade with Seattle, 4 26 .221

□   SS Wander Franco, 23,  '17 IFA, 17 58 .281, suspended from baseball

□   SS Carson Williams, 20, '21 1st round pick, minors 23 81 .257, top prospect

□   3B Isaac Paredes, 25, '22 trade from Detroit, 31 98 .250

□  3B Curtis Mead, 23, '20 trade from Phillies, 1 5 .253, top prospect

□  3B Junior Caminero, 20, '22 trade from Cleveland, 1 7 .235, top prospect

□   OF Randy Arozarena, 29,  '20 trade from St Louis, 23 83 .254

□   CF Jose Siri, 28, '22 trade from Houston, 25 56 .222

□   OF Josh Lowe, 26, '16 1st round pick, 20 83 .292

□ OF Johnny DeLuca, 25, '24 trade from LA, 2 6 .262

□  OF Harold Ramirez, 29, '22 trade from Cubs, 12 68 .313

Pitchers:

The pitching is a bit more problematic for Tampa. They gave up a healthy 83 runs

less than the league average last year. However, they gave up their top starter

Tyler Glasnow in a trade to LA and they are beset with injuries, a common problem

over the years for Rays pitchers. Tampa has always been able to stay ahead of the

curve by continually producing new studs to replace the injured old ones.

A remarkable record, really, however, their farm system has been geared more

towards position players the past few years, which has served them extremely well

up until now, but there may not be the usual plethora of potential replacements

this time around.

□ RHP Zach Elfin, 30, '23 FA from Phillies, 16-8 3.50

□ RHP Aaron Civale, 29, '23 Trade with Cleveland, 7-5 3.46

□ RHP Zack Littell, 28, '23 waivers from Boston, 3-6 3.93

□ Righty Ryan Pepiot, 26, '24 trade from LA, 2-1 2.14

□   RHP Taj Bradley, 22, '18 draft 5th round pick, 5-8 5.59

□ Closer Pete Fairbanks, 30, '19 trade from Texas, 2-4 2.58 25 saves

□  Closer Jason Adam, 32, '22 FA from Cubs, 4-2 2.98 12 saves

□ Lefty Reliever Colin Poche, 30, '18 trade from Arizona, 12-3 2.23

□ Righty Reliever Chris Devenski, 33, '23 trade from Anaheim, 6-4 4.46 0 saves

□ Lefty Reliever Garrett Cleavinger, 30 '23 trade from Anaheim, 1-0 3.00 0 saves

□ Righty Reliever Phil Maton, 31 '24 FA from Houston, 4-3 3.00 1 saves

□ Lefty Reliever Tyler Alexander, 29 '24 waivers from Detroit, 2-1 4.50 0 saves

□ Righty Reliever Shawn Armstrong, 33, '22 FA from Miami, 1-0 1.38 0 saves

□ LHP Shane McClanahan, 28, 1st round pick '18 draft, 11-2 3.29, Out - TJ Surgery

□   RHP Drew Rasmussen, 28, '21 trade from Milwaukee, 4-2 2.62, Out - TJ Surgery

□ Lefty Reliever Jeffrey Springs, 31, '21 trade from Boson, 2-0 0.56, Out - TJ Surgery

□ RHP Shane Baz, 23,  '18 trade from Pittsburgh, Out - TJ Surgery

□ RHP Cole Wilcox, 24,  '21 trade from SD, minors 6-8 5.23

□ Righty Reliever Kevin Kelly, 25,  '23 obtained from Colorado, 5-2 3.09, AAA

□ Lefty Mason Montgomery, 22  '21 draft 6th round pick, minors 7-4 3.98

2025

Tampa won 99 games in '23. They fell off a cliff and won only  80 in '24

And worse, their run differentials indicated a whopping 26 game drop off

between '23 and '24 from 100 to 74. What happened?

What happened was that the Tampa offense scored an incredible 256 runs less

in '24 than they did in '23. And that happened with almost the identical lineup

in '24 than '23. The only significant difference in the lineups was SS Wander Franco

was not there in '24. But, as talented as he is, his war was 5.5, not 26.

Every single player, save 2B Brandon Lowe, who held steady, fell off a cliff

offensively. This kind of thing rarely happens and I believe this

is the second biggest year to year drop off in big league history.

The 1931 Cubs dropped 278 runs. The 1919 Red Sox dropped 244 runs.

The 2024 Braves dropped 233 runs. The 1951 Red Sox dropped 223 runs.

The 1931 Phillies dropped 214 runs. The 2024 Rangers dropped 198 runs.

The 1962 Yankees dropped 191 runs. The 1936 Tigers dropped 189 runs.

So the question is - what the hell really happened?

We'll  guess that the Rays will hit better at the Yankee minor league Ft

Lauderdale park as the dark dank dungeon they have been forced to play in,

Tropicana Field, no longer exists.

2025 Hitting

The Rays have gotten rid of a lot of the culprits and replaced them with

players within the organization. Guys like Junior Caminero, Christopher Morel,

Jonny DeLuca and Jonathan Aranda. Good luck with that. In their favor, Tampa

had the top rated minor league organization in baseball last year. So there's

some talent in the pipeline, but not much for this year.

The best of the youngsters is SS Carson Williams, 22, who hit twenty homers

in AA last year. Probably will be ready in '26.

2025 Pitching:

The Rays are really good at developing young pitchers. Which is a particularly

good thing since they always need a lot of them as injuries take their toll year in

and year out. For instance, in '25, half of the Rays projected rotation recently

had TJ surgery. Plus the Rays dealt away a third to the A's, Jeffrey Springs, in the

off season for some prospects. If healthy, Shane McClanahan, 28, is the staff ace.

He was 11-2 3.29 before going down with TJ surgery in '23. The other TJ recovery

is righty Shane Baz, 26, 4-3 3.06. Righty Taj Bradley, 24, was 8-11 4.11 and is

poised to take his game to the next level. Righty Ryan Pepiot, 27, was 8-8 3.60

and has the stuff to move his game to the next level, as well. Zach Littell, 29,

8-10 3.63, rounds out a very strong rotation.

The bullpen is OK, not as strong as the starting rotation. The most effective hurlers

in the pen are Pete Fairbanks, 31, Kevin Kelly, 27, Jason Adam, 33, Edwin

Uceta, 27 and Manny Rodriguez, 28.